Exoneration Statistics Provide Lessons, But Not Exactitude
Exoneration statistics don’t provide a clear picture about the number of false convictions, but some general conclusions can be drawn from the numbers.
Adam Liptak looks at the statistical problems in his Sidebar column for the New York Times.
There have been 214 exonerations based on DNA evidence but there is no control group to measure those statistics against, Liptak writes. Virginia has begun testing retained DNA evidence in closed rape cases and has found two wrongful convictions in 22 out of 31 cases where the evidence produced results. That small sample suggests a false conviction rate of 9 percent, Liptak says.
Another number is cited by the Death Penalty Information Center. It says 127 death-row inmates have been exonerated out of 7,000-plus death sentences since the Supreme Court reinstated capital punishment. But some of the numbers are based on variables such as prosecutorial misconduct, Liptak asserts.
Despite the statistical difficulties, Liptak says these conclusions can be drawn from the numbers: “Black men are more likely to be falsely convicted of rape than are white men, particularly if the victim is white. Juveniles are more likely to confess falsely to murder. Exonerated defendants are less likely to have serious criminal records. People who maintain their innocence are more likely to be innocent. The longer it takes to solve a crime, the more likely the defendant is not guilty.”
