Lower Crime Rate Baffles Experts
The experts can’t explain it. Crime is down, according to reports from several metropolitan areas, and there is no single theory for the trend.
Homicides dropped 12 percent in Chicago and 38 percent in Charlotte, N.C., the New York Times reports. Major crimes in New York, Los Angeles and Madison, Wis., are down between 7 percent and 22 percent.
The economy has never been a good predictor of criminal activity, according to the story. An increase in prison beds isn’t a good explanation, since the crime rate has gone up and down despite greater rates of incarceration. Experts once said that an increase in young people brings more crimes, but demographics can’t help explain the current drop in crimes. And while improved policing may be an explanation in some cities, it doesn’t account for the national trend.
Law professor Franklin Zimring of the University of California at Berkeley discounts other theories. For example: Some say abortions have cut the number of unwanted children, who turn to a life of crime. Zimring says other countries that legalized abortions didn’t see lower crime rates. Another theory: Gun rights for the law-abiding have discouraged criminals. Zimring points out that gun ownership is low in New York, yet crime has dropped significantly there. And New York statistics discount another theory: Illegal drug use is said to increase crime, yet the percentage of those arrested in New York with illegal drugs in their system has remained about the same.
