U.S. Supreme Court

Trading Website and FantasySCOTUS Differ over Chances of Health Law Smackdown


Prognosticators looking ahead to the U.S. Supreme Court decision on the health care law’s insurance mandate are setting the odds on an online trading website and in a Supreme Court fantasy league. The prediction: It will be struck down as unconstitutional. The odds: Those putting their money on the line are more sure of a smackdown.

At deadline for a story published by Yahoo News, the online trading exchange Intrade was setting the odds at 61 percent that the U.S. Supreme Court will strike down the mandate. But at FantasySCOTUS, the website founded by lawyer Josh Blackman, about 52 percent were predicting the mandate will fall. (When the ABA Journal checked, Intrade put the chances of a ruling against the mandate at 63.5 percent, while about 51 percent agreed with that assessment at FantasySCOTUS.)

FantasySCOTUS players don’t bet money, but they do compete for badges. The website also crowns an overall a winner for best predictions. It is asking players for predictions on other issues related to the health law. When this article was written:

• Nearly 93 percent at FantasySCOTUS thought the suit would be allowed to proceed.

• Nearly 73 percent thought the insurance mandate was severable from other parts of the legislation.

• About 71 percent thought the Medicaid expansion would be upheld.

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