U.S. Supreme Court

Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog Predicts the Insurance Mandate Will Not Be Struck Down


SCOTUSblog founder Tom Goldstein is going out on a limb with a prediction on the health law ruling that will buoy supporters of the law.

“In the end, you have to make a prediction and take responsibility for it,” Goldstein wrote at SCOTUSblog on Wednesday. “ I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the chief justice; a majority of the court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.”

Goldstein says his prediction “includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.”

He adds that his “level of confidence isn’t overwhelming, but it’s good enough to give a concrete prediction. We’ll see.”

Previous:
SCOTUS Notebook: The Mechanics and the Art of Court Decisions

Next:
Herbert Smith and Freehills OK Megamerger; 2,800-Attorney Firm Plans to Open New York Office in 2012


We welcome your comments, but please adhere to our comment policy. Flag comment for moderator.

Commenting is not available in this channel entry.