U.S. Supreme Court

Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog Predicts the Insurance Mandate Will Not Be Struck Down


SCOTUSblog founder Tom Goldstein is going out on a limb with a prediction on the health law ruling that will buoy supporters of the law.

“In the end, you have to make a prediction and take responsibility for it,” Goldstein wrote at SCOTUSblog on Wednesday. “ I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the chief justice; a majority of the court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.”

Goldstein says his prediction “includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.”

He adds that his “level of confidence isn’t overwhelming, but it’s good enough to give a concrete prediction. We’ll see.”


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