U.S. Supreme Court
Tom Goldstein of SCOTUSblog Predicts the Insurance Mandate Will Not Be Struck Down
Posted Jun 28, 2012 7:40 AM CST
By Debra Cassens Weiss
SCOTUSblog founder Tom Goldstein is going out on a limb with a prediction on the health law ruling that will buoy supporters of the law.
“In the end, you have to make a prediction and take responsibility for it,” Goldstein wrote at SCOTUSblog on Wednesday. “ I believe the mandate will not be invalidated tomorrow. Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the chief justice; a majority of the court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.”
Goldstein says his prediction “includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.”
He adds that his “level of confidence isn’t overwhelming, but it’s good enough to give a concrete prediction. We’ll see.”